On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus, where Alexander Lukashenko, who has held power since 1994, was declared the winner. The EU’s top diplomat and the European Parliament\u2019s president condemned the “sham elections.” Leaders from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, and Germany also criticized the elections, while Hungary blocked the EU’s joint statement denouncing the undemocratic process. “The relentless and unprecedented level of repression, human rights violations, and restrictions on political participation and independent media have stripped the electoral process of any legitimacy,” read the draft statement prepared by the European External Action Service.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
A Predictable Outcome<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Political scientist Olga Dryndova, Editor-in-Chief of Belarus-Analysen, expressed no surprise at the election results. \u201cSince 1995\u20131996, elections in Belarus have ceased to be democratic. The only internationally recognized free election was in 1994, when Lukashenko genuinely won in the second round. That was the first and last instance of true democracy in the country.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n She noted that despite widespread protests in 2020, which signaled a shift in public sentiment, the regime remained in control. \u201cPeople intuitively understood that Lukashenko no longer had majority support. But after 2020, fear and apathy took hold. Today, Belarus is a fully repressive autocracy with no independent candidates, no mass protests, no free media, and thousands of political prisoners.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Europe\u2019s Response and Sanctions<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The EU has imposed the most extensive sectoral sanctions against Belarus in its history. While sanctions have existed since the 1990s, their intensity has fluctuated. \u201cThe timing of these measures is a point of criticism,\u201d Dryndova explained. \u201cWhen authorities tortured, killed activists, and suppressed protests, sanctions were limited to individuals. But it was only after incidents directly threatening EU security\u2014such as the Ryanair plane incident, the migration crisis, and Belarus\u2019s involvement in the Ukraine war\u2014that sectoral sanctions were imposed.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite criticisms, she emphasized that it would be unfair to say Europe has done nothing. However, human rights violations alone did not trigger such large-scale sanctions, reflecting the EU\u2019s priorities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n What Comes Next for Belarus?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The elections passed without mass protests, but the question remains: will repression continue as in 2020? Dryndova believes the regime may make small concessions to appear more democratic. \u201cSince July 2023, there have been several waves of pardons\u2014about 250 people released. Officially, this is framed as a humanitarian gesture, but the real goal could be to provoke a reaction from the West, possibly easing sanctions or regaining international recognition.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n However, new arrests continue alongside these releases, indicating internal chaos within the security apparatus. Meanwhile, the Belarusian opposition remains divided on how to engage with the regime. Some reject negotiations outright, while others prioritize humanitarian concerns over political principles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Impact of the Ukraine War on Belarus<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine was a turning point for Belarus. \u201cEveryone was shocked when Russian troops used Belarusian territory to attack Ukraine,\u201d Dryndova said. \u201cBelarus has historically defended itself from invaders. This showed that Lukashenko has no limits and will align with Putin to stay in power.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n For years, Lukashenko justified his rule by saying, \u2018At least we have no war.\u2019 After 2022, the idea of a peaceful Belarus became even more significant to citizens. However, Russian and Belarusian state propaganda framed the war as necessary for protection, influencing public perception.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Lukashenko\u2019s Threat to Europe<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Belarus\u2019s authoritarianism has consequences beyond its borders. \u201cThe 2020 Ryanair plane incident is a striking example,\u201d Dryndova noted. \u201cBy Lukashenko\u2019s order, a passenger plane carrying EU citizens was forcibly grounded, directly challenging international security. This incident shows how authoritarianism in Belarus affects European stability.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Future of the Regime<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The survival of Lukashenko\u2019s rule depends on external factors: the war in Ukraine, the stability of Putin\u2019s regime, and the stance of other authoritarian states.<\/p>\n\n\n\n \u201cThe key question is what happens if Lukashenko steps down or dies. Will a successor emerge, and can they maintain control? The entire system is built around him, so its future is uncertain,\u201d Dryndova explained. \u201cIt could continue functioning, or we could see major changes.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the current repression, she remains hopeful. \u201cI believe in a better future for my country. Support from democratic nations is essential to accelerate change and help Belarus on its path to freedom.\u201d<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" On January 26, presidential elections were held in Belarus, where Alexander Lukashenko, who has held power since 1994, was declared the winner. The EU’s top diplomat and the European Parliament\u2019s president condemned the “sham elections.” Leaders from Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, Ukraine, and Germany also criticized the elections, while Hungary blocked the EU’s joint statement denouncing the undemocratic process. “The relentless and unprecedented level of repression, human rights violations, and restrictions on political participation and independent media have stripped the electoral process of any legitimacy,” read the draft statement prepared by the European External Action Service.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":8965,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1,300,82],"tags":[61],"years":[327],"countries":[33],"topics":[],"ppma_author":[325],"class_list":["post-8960","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-news-en","category-newsletter","category-olga-dryndova","tag-belarus","years-327","countries-belarus"],"acf":[],"publishpress_future_action":{"enabled":false,"date":"2026-04-29 22:00:29","action":"change-status","newStatus":"draft","terms":[],"taxonomy":"category","extraData":[]},"publishpress_future_workflow_manual_trigger":{"enabledWorkflows":[]},"authors":[{"term_id":325,"user_id":16,"is_guest":0,"slug":"mkutnyakova","display_name":"Mariia Kutniakova","avatar_url":{"url":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-11.png","url2x":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/wp-content\/uploads\/2025\/12\/2025-11.png"},"0":null,"1":"","2":"","3":"","4":"","5":"","6":"","7":"","8":"","9":"","10":"","11":"","12":""}],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8960","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/16"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=8960"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8960\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":8964,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/8960\/revisions\/8964"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/8965"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=8960"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=8960"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=8960"},{"taxonomy":"years","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/years?post=8960"},{"taxonomy":"countries","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/countries?post=8960"},{"taxonomy":"topics","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/topics?post=8960"},{"taxonomy":"author","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/austausch.org\/en\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/ppma_author?post=8960"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}